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Mes Kerman vs Paykan — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Paykan
Paykan
V. Namdari 53'
1/3/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 17Shohada Mes Rafsanjan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mes Kerman33%
×Draw34%
Paykan33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
0.83
Paykan
0.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.01
Paykan
1.18

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.50
Paykan
0.65

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Paykan+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Paykan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
67%
Mes Kerman or Paykan
66%
Draw or Paykan
67%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
11%
Paykan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
56%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
20%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
5%
Paykan 1+ goals
57%
Paykan 2+ goals
21%
Paykan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
50%
Paykan (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.50 · 96 matches

Paykan away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.01 + Paykan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.83

Paykan attack 1.18 + Mes Kerman defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
33%
level
34%
Paykan scores more
33%

Mes Kerman at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
V. Namdari

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Kerman vs Paykan

Mes Kerman beat Paykan 1-0 in Azadegan League on January 3, 2025.

Goals: V. Namdari (53').

The match was played at Shohada Mes Rafsanjan Stadium in Rafsanjan.