Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Paykan vs Damash Gilanian — Azadegan League 2018

Paykan
Paykan
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
R. Rezaei 90+6', 80'
B. Salami 86'
4/16/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Shahr-e Qods Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Paykan60%
×Draw26%
Damash Gilanian14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paykan
1.48
Damash Gilanian
0.55

Paykan creates 169% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 61 away

creates per match

Paykan
1.35
Damash Gilanian
0.51

allows per match

Paykan
0.59
Damash Gilanian
1.61

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par
Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Damash Gilanian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Paykan or draw
86%
Paykan or Damash Gilanian
74%
Draw or Damash Gilanian
40%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+
32%
Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals
77%
Paykan 2+ goals
43%
Paykan 3+ goals
19%
Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
42%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
11%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)
81%
Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Damash Gilanian away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.61 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 1.35 + Damash Gilanian defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

Damash Gilanian attack 0.51 + Paykan defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Paykan scores more
60%
level
26%
Damash Gilanian scores more
14%

Paykan at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'
R. Rezaei
86'
B. Salami
90+6'
R. Rezaei

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paykan vs Damash Gilanian

Paykan beat Damash Gilanian 3-0 in Azadegan League on April 16, 2025.

Goals: R. Rezaei (80', 90+6'), B. Salami (86').

The match was played at Shahr-e Qods Stadium in Shahr-e Qods.