Damash Gilanian 1–4 Paykan: Result & Stats

Damash Gilanian

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Paykan

S. Mehrabizadeh 90+1'

R. Rezaei 90+7' (pen), 76', 59'

M. Haghdoost 85'

11/30/2024

Azadegan League · Round 12Dr. Azodi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Damash Gilanian27%

×Draw32%

Paykan41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Damash GilanianExpected goals in this matchPaykan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.04

Damash Gilanian

0.78

Paykan

1.04

Paykan creates 33% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

0.91

creates per match

1.18

0.91

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Damash Gilanian

0.91

Paykan

1.18

allows per match

Damash Gilanian

0.91

Paykan

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Paykan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Damash Gilanian ↓

Paykan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–117%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Damash Gilanian or draw

59%

Damash Gilanian or Paykan

68%

Draw or Paykan

73%

Winning margin

Damash Gilanian wins by 2+

8%

Paykan wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Damash Gilanian 1+ goals

54%

Damash Gilanian 2+ goals

18%

Damash Gilanian 3+ goals

4%

Paykan 1+ goals

65%

Paykan 2+ goals

28%

Paykan 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)

40%

Paykan (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Damash Gilanian at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.91 · 66 matches

Paykan away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Damash Gilanian attack 0.91 + Paykan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.78

Paykan attack 1.18 + Damash Gilanian defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Damash Gilanian scores more

27%

level

32%

Paykan scores more

41%

Paykan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

R. Rezaei

76'

R. Rezaei

85'

M. Haghdoost

90+1'

S. Mehrabizadeh

90+7'

R. RezaeiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff