Paykan 0–0 Ario Eslamshahr: Result & Stats

Paykan

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ario Eslamshahr

12/7/2024

Azadegan League · Round 13Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Paykan45%

×Draw32%

Ario Eslamshahr23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaykanExpected goals in this matchArio Eslamshahr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.69

Paykan

1.09

Ario Eslamshahr

0.69

Paykan creates 58% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

1.35

creates per match

0.78

0.59

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Paykan

1.35

Ario Eslamshahr

0.78

allows per match

Paykan

0.59

Ario Eslamshahr

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par

Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Ario Eslamshahr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Paykan or draw

77%

Paykan or Ario Eslamshahr

68%

Draw or Ario Eslamshahr

55%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+

19%

Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals

66%

Paykan 2+ goals

30%

Paykan 3+ goals

10%

Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals

50%

Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals

15%

Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)

66%

Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Ario Eslamshahr away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 1.35 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.09

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Paykan defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Paykan scores more

45%

level

32%

Ario Eslamshahr scores more

23%

Paykan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff