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Ario Eslamshahr vs Paykan — Azadegan League 2018

Ario Eslamshahr
Ario Eslamshahr
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Paykan
Paykan
A. Ameri 89' (OG)
M. Sharifi 45'
4/21/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 30Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ario Eslamshahr30%
×Draw37%
Paykan34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ario Eslamshahr
0.72
Paykan
0.79

Paykan creates 10% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ario Eslamshahr
0.78
Paykan
1.18

allows per match

Ario Eslamshahr
0.41
Paykan
0.65

finishing

Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par
Paykan+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ario Eslamshahr ↓

Paykan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Ario Eslamshahr or draw
66%
Ario Eslamshahr or Paykan
63%
Draw or Paykan
70%

Winning margin

Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+
9%
Paykan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals
51%
Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals
16%
Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals
4%
Paykan 1+ goals
55%
Paykan 2+ goals
19%
Paykan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)
47%
Paykan (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ario Eslamshahr at home — creates 0.78, concedes 0.41 · 51 matches

Paykan away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Paykan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.72

Paykan attack 1.18 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Ario Eslamshahr scores more
30%
level
37%
Paykan scores more
34%

Paykan at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
M. Sharifi
89'
A. AmeriOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ario Eslamshahr vs Paykan

Paykan beat Ario Eslamshahr 2-0 in Azadegan League on April 21, 2025.

Goals: M. Sharifi (45'), A. Ameri (89' o.g.).

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium in Arak.