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Pawłowice Śląskie vs Lechia Zielona Góra — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
10/18/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 13Stadion Pniówek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Pawłowice Śląskie40%
×Draw24%
Lechia Zielona Góra37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.63
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 103 away

creates per match

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.85
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.50

allows per match

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.63
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.41

finishing

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par
Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pawłowice Śląskie ↓

Lechia Zielona Góra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Pawłowice Śląskie or draw
63%
Pawłowice Śląskie or Lechia Zielona Góra
76%
Draw or Lechia Zielona Góra
60%

Winning margin

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
20%
Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
80%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
48%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
22%
Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
79%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
46%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
52%
Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pawłowice Śląskie at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

Lechia Zielona Góra away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.85 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.63

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.50 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
40%
level
24%
Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
37%

Pawłowice Śląskie at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pawłowice Śląskie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Pawłowice Śląskie 0–4 Lechia Zielona Góra

Lechia Zielona Góra beat Pawłowice Śląskie 4-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Pniówek in Pawłowice Śląskie.