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Lechia Zielona Góra vs Pawłowice Śląskie — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
5/9/2026III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 30Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Lechia Zielona Góra49%
×Draw24%
Pawłowice Śląskie27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.71
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.19

Lechia Zielona Góra creates 44% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.62
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.20

allows per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.18
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.79

finishing

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par
Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Zielona Góra ↓

Pawłowice Śląskie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lechia Zielona Góra or draw
73%
Lechia Zielona Góra or Pawłowice Śląskie
76%
Draw or Pawłowice Śląskie
51%

Winning margin

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
27%
Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
82%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
51%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
24%
Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
70%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
33%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
65%
Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Zielona Góra at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Pawłowice Śląskie away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.62 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.20 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
49%
level
24%
Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
27%

Lechia Zielona Góra at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lechia Zielona Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Lechia Zielona Góra 1–0 Pawłowice Śląskie

Lechia Zielona Góra beat Pawłowice Śląskie 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 9, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zielona Góra.