Pawłowice Śląskie 2–3 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

Pawłowice Śląskie

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

11/25/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Stadion Pniówek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Pawłowice Śląskie49%

×Draw22%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pawłowice ŚląskieExpected goals in this matchKarkonosze Jelenia Góra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.38

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.89

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1.38

Pawłowice Śląskie creates 37% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 68 away

1.85

creates per match

1.13

1.63

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.85

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1.13

allows per match

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.63

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pawłowice Śląskie ↓

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Pawłowice Śląskie or draw

72%

Pawłowice Śląskie or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

78%

Draw or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

51%

Winning margin

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+

28%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals

85%

Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals

56%

Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals

29%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals

75%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals

40%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)

64%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pawłowice Śląskie at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.85 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.89

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 1.13 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more

49%

level

22%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more

28%

Pawłowice Śląskie at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pawłowice Śląskie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff