Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1–1 Pawłowice Śląskie

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pawłowice Śląskie

4/10/2026

III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 26Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra46%

×Draw24%

Pawłowice Śląskie30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karkonosze Jelenia GóraExpected goals in this matchPawłowice Śląskie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.27

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1.63

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.27

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra creates 28% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 102 away

1.46

creates per match

1.20

1.34

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1.46

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.20

allows per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1.34

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra ↓

Pawłowice Śląskie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or draw

70%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or Pawłowice Śląskie

76%

Draw or Pawłowice Śląskie

54%

Winning margin

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+

24%

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals

80%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals

48%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals

22%

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals

72%

Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals

36%

Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)

61%

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 67 matches

Pawłowice Śląskie away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 1.46 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.63

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.20 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more

46%

level

24%

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more

30%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Karkonosze Jelenia Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff