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Pawłowice Śląskie vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
5/4/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 28Stadion Pniówek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Pawłowice Śląskie46%
×Draw23%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.85
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.51

Pawłowice Śląskie creates 23% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 69 away

creates per match

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.85
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.39

allows per match

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.63
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.84

finishing

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pawłowice Śląskie ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Pawłowice Śląskie or draw
68%
Pawłowice Śląskie or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
77%
Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
54%

Winning margin

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
25%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
84%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
55%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
28%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
78%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
44%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
59%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pawłowice Śląskie at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.85 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.85

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
46%
level
23%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
32%

Pawłowice Śląskie at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pawłowice Śląskie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Pawłowice Śląskie 2–2 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Pawłowice Śląskie and Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pniówek in Pawłowice Śląskie.