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Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Pawłowice Śląskie — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
FT
2 – 2
Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
9/17/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry45%
×Draw24%
Pawłowice Śląskie31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.64
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.32

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 24% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 102 away

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.49
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.20

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.45
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.79

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par
Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Pawłowice Śląskie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw
69%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Pawłowice Śląskie
76%
Draw or Pawłowice Śląskie
55%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
23%
Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
81%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
49%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
23%
Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
73%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
38%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
59%
Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Pawłowice Śląskie away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.64

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.20 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
45%
level
24%
Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
31%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Pawłowice Śląskie

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry and Pawłowice Śląskie drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek in Tarnowskie Góry.