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Pawłowice Śląskie vs Górnik Zabrze II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Górnik Zabrze II
Górnik Zabrze II
11/21/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 18Stadion Pniówek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Pawłowice Śląskie41%
×Draw22%
Górnik Zabrze II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.80
Górnik Zabrze II
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 103 away

creates per match

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.85
Górnik Zabrze II
1.70

allows per match

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.63
Górnik Zabrze II
1.75

finishing

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par
Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pawłowice Śląskie ↓

Górnik Zabrze II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Pawłowice Śląskie or draw
64%
Pawłowice Śląskie or Górnik Zabrze II
78%
Draw or Górnik Zabrze II
59%

Winning margin

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
22%
Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
83%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
54%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
27%
Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals
81%
Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals
50%
Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
53%
Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pawłowice Śląskie at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

Górnik Zabrze II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.85 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.80

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.70 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
41%
level
22%
Górnik Zabrze II scores more
36%

Pawłowice Śląskie at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pawłowice Śląskie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Pawłowice Śląskie 1–3 Górnik Zabrze II

Górnik Zabrze II beat Pawłowice Śląskie 3-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Pniówek in Pawłowice Śląskie.