Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Górnik Zabrze II vs Pawłowice Śląskie — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Zabrze II
Górnik Zabrze II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
8/3/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 1Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Górnik Zabrze II50%
×Draw23%
Pawłowice Śląskie26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Zabrze II
1.79
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.23

Górnik Zabrze II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze II
1.79
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.20

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze II
1.25
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.79

finishing

Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par
Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze II ↓

Pawłowice Śląskie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze II or draw
74%
Górnik Zabrze II or Pawłowice Śląskie
77%
Draw or Pawłowice Śląskie
50%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+
28%
Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals
83%
Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals
53%
Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals
26%
Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
71%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
35%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)
66%
Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Pawłowice Śląskie away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.79 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.20 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Górnik Zabrze II scores more
50%
level
23%
Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
26%

Górnik Zabrze II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Górnik Zabrze II 3–0 Pawłowice Śląskie

Górnik Zabrze II beat Pawłowice Śląskie 3-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Zabrze.