Pawłowice Śląskie 2–1 Gać Oława: Result & Stats

Pawłowice Śląskie

FT

2 – 1

Gać Oława

10/2/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Stadion Pniówek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Pawłowice Śląskie58%

×Draw20%

Gać Oława22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pawłowice ŚląskieExpected goals in this matchGać Oława

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.31

Pawłowice Śląskie

2.21

Gać Oława

1.31

Pawłowice Śląskie creates 69% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 35 away

1.85

creates per match

1.00

1.63

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.85

Gać Oława

1.00

allows per match

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.63

Gać Oława

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Gać Oława+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pawłowice Śląskie ↓

Gać Oława →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Pawłowice Śląskie or draw

78%

Pawłowice Śląskie or Gać Oława

80%

Draw or Gać Oława

42%

Winning margin

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+

35%

Gać Oława wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals

89%

Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals

65%

Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals

38%

Gać Oława 1+ goals

73%

Gać Oława 2+ goals

38%

Gać Oława 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)

72%

Gać Oława (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pawłowice Śląskie at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

Gać Oława away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.85 + Gać Oława defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.21

Gać Oława attack 1.00 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more

58%

level

20%

Gać Oława scores more

22%

Pawłowice Śląskie at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pawłowice Śląskie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff