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Gać Oława vs Pawłowice Śląskie — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gać Oława
Gać Oława
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
M. Skowron 66'
L. Orzechowski 47'
P. Pacholski 81'
D. Morcinek 21'
5/7/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 28Stadion w Gaciu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Gać Oława35%
×Draw23%
Pawłowice Śląskie42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gać Oława
1.54
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.71

Pawłowice Śląskie creates 11% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 102 away

creates per match

Gać Oława
1.29
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.20

allows per match

Gać Oława
2.23
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.79

finishing

Gać Oława+0.00on par
Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gać Oława ↓

Pawłowice Śląskie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gać Oława or draw
58%
Gać Oława or Pawłowice Śląskie
77%
Draw or Pawłowice Śląskie
65%

Winning margin

Gać Oława wins by 2+
17%
Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Gać Oława 1+ goals
79%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
45%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
20%
Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
82%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
51%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Gać Oława (draw refunded)
45%
Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gać Oława at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.23 · 35 matches

Pawłowice Śląskie away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gać Oława attack 1.29 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.20 + Gać Oława defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gać Oława scores more
35%
level
23%
Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
42%

Pawłowice Śląskie at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pawłowice Śląskie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
D. Morcinek
47'
L. Orzechowski
66'
M. Skowron
81'
P. Pacholski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Gać Oława 2–2 Pawłowice Śląskie

Gać Oława and Pawłowice Śląskie drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 7, 2022.

Goals: D. Morcinek (21'), L. Orzechowski (47'), M. Skowron (66'), P. Pacholski (81').

The match was played at Stadion w Gaciu in Gać.