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Pawłowice Śląskie vs Chrobry Głogów II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
D. Morcinek 33'
T. Wojciechowski 90+4', 90+2'
A. Marciniak 22'
9/24/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Stadion Pniówek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pawłowice Śląskie46%
×Draw24%
Chrobry Głogów II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.66
Chrobry Głogów II
1.31

Pawłowice Śląskie creates 27% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

creates per match

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.85
Chrobry Głogów II
1.00

allows per match

Pawłowice Śląskie
1.63
Chrobry Głogów II
1.47

finishing

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pawłowice Śląskie ↓

Chrobry Głogów II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pawłowice Śląskie or draw
70%
Pawłowice Śląskie or Chrobry Głogów II
76%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów II
54%

Winning margin

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
24%
Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
81%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
49%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
23%
Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
73%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
38%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
60%
Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pawłowice Śląskie at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

Chrobry Głogów II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.85 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.66

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.00 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
46%
level
24%
Chrobry Głogów II scores more
30%

Pawłowice Śląskie at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pawłowice Śląskie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
A. Marciniak
33'
D. Morcinek
90+2'
T. Wojciechowski
90+4'
T. Wojciechowski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Pawłowice Śląskie 1–3 Chrobry Głogów II

Chrobry Głogów II beat Pawłowice Śląskie 3-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 24, 2022.

Goals: A. Marciniak (22'), D. Morcinek (33'), T. Wojciechowski (90+2', 90+4').

The match was played at Stadion Pniówek in Pawłowice Śląskie.