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Chrobry Głogów II vs Pawłowice Śląskie — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
FT
1 – 2
Pawłowice Śląskie
Pawłowice Śląskie
4/28/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chrobry Głogów II33%
×Draw22%
Pawłowice Śląskie45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrobry Głogów II
1.63
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.92

Pawłowice Śląskie creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 102 away

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów II
1.47
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.20

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów II
2.65
Pawłowice Śląskie
1.79

finishing

Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par
Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów II ↓

Pawłowice Śląskie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów II or draw
55%
Chrobry Głogów II or Pawłowice Śląskie
78%
Draw or Pawłowice Śląskie
67%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
16%
Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
80%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
48%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
22%
Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals
85%
Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals
57%
Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
43%
Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Pawłowice Śląskie away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.47 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.63

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.20 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chrobry Głogów II scores more
33%
level
22%
Pawłowice Śląskie scores more
45%

Pawłowice Śląskie at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pawłowice Śląskie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chrobry Głogów II vs Pawłowice Śląskie

Pawłowice Śląskie beat Chrobry Głogów II 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 28, 2023.

The match was played at MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie in Głogów.