Pavlikeni 3–0 Juventus Malchika: Result & Stats

Pavlikeni

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Juventus Malchika

4/4/2026

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Pavlikeni70%

×Draw17%

Juventus Malchika13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PavlikeniExpected goals in this matchJuventus Malchika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

0.95

Pavlikeni

2.46

Juventus Malchika

0.95

Pavlikeni creates 159% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 65 away

1.74

creates per match

0.80

1.09

allows per match

3.17

creates per match

Pavlikeni

1.74

Juventus Malchika

0.80

allows per match

Pavlikeni

1.09

Juventus Malchika

3.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pavlikeni+0.00on par

Juventus Malchika+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pavlikeni ↓

Juventus Malchika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Pavlikeni or draw

87%

Pavlikeni or Juventus Malchika

83%

Draw or Juventus Malchika

30%

Winning margin

Pavlikeni wins by 2+

48%

Juventus Malchika wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Pavlikeni 1+ goals

91%

Pavlikeni 2+ goals

70%

Pavlikeni 3+ goals

44%

Juventus Malchika 1+ goals

61%

Juventus Malchika 2+ goals

25%

Juventus Malchika 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Pavlikeni (draw refunded)

85%

Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pavlikeni at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Juventus Malchika away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pavlikeni attack 1.74 + Juventus Malchika defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.46

Juventus Malchika attack 0.80 + Pavlikeni defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Pavlikeni scores more

70%

level

17%

Juventus Malchika scores more

13%

Pavlikeni at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Pavlikeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff