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Juventus Malchika vs Pavlikeni — Third League - Northwest 2018

Juventus Malchika
Juventus Malchika
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Pavlikeni
Pavlikeni
11/16/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 11Stadion Georgi Karchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Juventus Malchika40%
×Draw23%
Pavlikeni37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Malchika
1.69
Pavlikeni
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 104 away

creates per match

Juventus Malchika
1.48
Pavlikeni
1.22

allows per match

Juventus Malchika
2.02
Pavlikeni
1.91

finishing

Juventus Malchika+0.00on par
Pavlikeni+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Malchika ↓

Pavlikeni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Juventus Malchika or draw
63%
Juventus Malchika or Pavlikeni
77%
Draw or Pavlikeni
60%

Winning margin

Juventus Malchika wins by 2+
20%
Pavlikeni wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Juventus Malchika 1+ goals
82%
Juventus Malchika 2+ goals
50%
Juventus Malchika 3+ goals
24%
Pavlikeni 1+ goals
80%
Pavlikeni 2+ goals
48%
Pavlikeni 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)
52%
Pavlikeni (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Malchika at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.02 · 66 matches

Pavlikeni away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Malchika attack 1.48 + Pavlikeni defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.69

Pavlikeni attack 1.22 + Juventus Malchika defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Juventus Malchika scores more
40%
level
23%
Pavlikeni scores more
37%

Juventus Malchika at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Juventus Malchika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Juventus Malchika 1–2 Pavlikeni

Pavlikeni beat Juventus Malchika 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Karchev in Malchika.