Pavlikeni 2–1 Botev Vratsa II: Result & Stats

Pavlikeni

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Botev Vratsa II

4/6/2024

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 22Stadion Gancho Panov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Pavlikeni52%

×Draw23%

Botev Vratsa II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PavlikeniExpected goals in this matchBotev Vratsa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.13

Pavlikeni

1.78

Botev Vratsa II

1.13

Pavlikeni creates 58% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 61 away

1.74

creates per match

1.16

1.09

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Pavlikeni

1.74

Botev Vratsa II

1.16

allows per match

Pavlikeni

1.09

Botev Vratsa II

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pavlikeni+0.00on par

Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pavlikeni ↓

Botev Vratsa II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Pavlikeni or draw

76%

Pavlikeni or Botev Vratsa II

77%

Draw or Botev Vratsa II

48%

Winning margin

Pavlikeni wins by 2+

29%

Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Pavlikeni 1+ goals

83%

Pavlikeni 2+ goals

53%

Pavlikeni 3+ goals

26%

Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals

68%

Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals

31%

Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pavlikeni (draw refunded)

68%

Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pavlikeni at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Botev Vratsa II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pavlikeni attack 1.74 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.78

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.16 + Pavlikeni defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pavlikeni scores more

52%

level

23%

Botev Vratsa II scores more

24%

Pavlikeni at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pavlikeni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff