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Botev Vratsa II vs Pavlikeni — Third League - Northwest 2018

Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pavlikeni
Pavlikeni
10/8/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 10Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Botev Vratsa II46%
×Draw23%
Pavlikeni31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa II
1.76
Pavlikeni
1.40

Botev Vratsa II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 104 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.61
Pavlikeni
1.22

allows per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.58
Pavlikeni
1.91

finishing

Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par
Pavlikeni+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa II ↓

Pavlikeni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa II or draw
69%
Botev Vratsa II or Pavlikeni
77%
Draw or Pavlikeni
54%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
25%
Pavlikeni wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
83%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
52%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
26%
Pavlikeni 1+ goals
75%
Pavlikeni 2+ goals
41%
Pavlikeni 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
60%
Pavlikeni (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa II at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 62 matches

Pavlikeni away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.61 + Pavlikeni defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.76

Pavlikeni attack 1.22 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Botev Vratsa II scores more
46%
level
23%
Pavlikeni scores more
31%

Botev Vratsa II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Botev Vratsa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Botev Vratsa II 4–0 Pavlikeni

Botev Vratsa II beat Pavlikeni 4-0 in Third League - Northwest on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Lukovit.