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Paulista vs Manthiqueira — Paulista Série B 2026

Paulista
Paulista
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Manthiqueira
Manthiqueira
Unknown 84', 75', 65', 55'
Leo Kevin 45+1' (pen)
7/6/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 2Estádio Dr. Jayme Pinheiro de Ulhôa Cintra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Paulista66%
×Draw19%
Manthiqueira15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paulista
2.33
Manthiqueira
1.02

Paulista creates 128% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 17 away

creates per match

Paulista
2.00
Manthiqueira
1.35

allows per match

Paulista
0.70
Manthiqueira
2.65

finishing

Paulista+0.00on par
Manthiqueira+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paulista ↓

Manthiqueira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Paulista or draw
85%
Paulista or Manthiqueira
81%
Draw or Manthiqueira
34%

Winning margin

Paulista wins by 2+
43%
Manthiqueira wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Paulista 1+ goals
90%
Paulista 2+ goals
67%
Paulista 3+ goals
41%
Manthiqueira 1+ goals
64%
Manthiqueira 2+ goals
27%
Manthiqueira 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Paulista (draw refunded)
81%
Manthiqueira (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paulista at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Manthiqueira away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paulista attack 2.00 + Manthiqueira defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.33

Manthiqueira attack 1.35 + Paulista defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Paulista scores more
66%
level
19%
Manthiqueira scores more
15%

Paulista at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Paulista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
Leo KevinPenalty
55'
65'
75'
84'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Paulista 5–0 Manthiqueira

Paulista beat Manthiqueira 5-0 in Paulista Série B on July 6, 2024.

Goals: Leo Kevin (45+1' pen), ? (55', 65', 75', 84').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Jayme Pinheiro de Ulhôa Cintra in Jundiaí, São Paulo.