Manthiqueira 0–3 Paulista: Result & Stats

Manthiqueira

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Paulista

Unknown 70', 49', 20'

7/27/2024

Paulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Manthiqueira18%

×Draw24%

Paulista58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ManthiqueiraExpected goals in this matchPaulista

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.73

Manthiqueira

0.84

Paulista

1.73

Paulista creates 106% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

1.28

creates per match

1.90

1.56

allows per match

0.40

creates per match

Manthiqueira

1.28

Paulista

1.90

allows per match

Manthiqueira

1.56

Paulista

0.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manthiqueira+0.00on par

Paulista+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manthiqueira ↓

Paulista →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Manthiqueira or draw

42%

Manthiqueira or Paulista

76%

Draw or Paulista

82%

Winning margin

Manthiqueira wins by 2+

6%

Paulista wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Manthiqueira 1+ goals

57%

Manthiqueira 2+ goals

21%

Manthiqueira 3+ goals

5%

Paulista 1+ goals

82%

Paulista 2+ goals

52%

Paulista 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Manthiqueira (draw refunded)

24%

Paulista (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manthiqueira at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

Paulista away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manthiqueira attack 1.28 + Paulista defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.84

Paulista attack 1.90 + Manthiqueira defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Manthiqueira scores more

18%

level

24%

Paulista scores more

58%

Paulista at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Paulista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

49'

70'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff