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Paulista vs Barcelona EC — Paulista Série B 2026

Paulista
Paulista
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Barcelona EC
Barcelona EC
Christopher 81', 63' (pen)
H. Victor 75'
V. Caveira 17', 5'
J. Conceicao 10'
5/17/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Dr. Jayme Pinheiro de Ulhôa Cintra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Paulista84%
×Draw12%
Barcelona EC4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paulista
2.55
Barcelona EC
0.40

Paulista creates 537% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Paulista
2.00
Barcelona EC
0.11

allows per match

Paulista
0.70
Barcelona EC
3.11

finishing

Paulista+0.00on par
Barcelona EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 70Yes: 3070%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paulista ↓

Barcelona EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Paulista or draw
96%
Paulista or Barcelona EC
88%
Draw or Barcelona EC
16%

Winning margin

Paulista wins by 2+
62%
Barcelona EC wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Paulista 1+ goals
92%
Paulista 2+ goals
72%
Paulista 3+ goals
46%
Barcelona EC 1+ goals
33%
Barcelona EC 2+ goals
6%
Barcelona EC 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Paulista (draw refunded)
95%
Barcelona EC (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paulista at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Barcelona EC away — creates 0.11, concedes 3.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paulista attack 2.00 + Barcelona EC defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.55

Barcelona EC attack 0.11 + Paulista defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Paulista scores more
84%
level
12%
Barcelona EC scores more
4%

Paulista at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Paulista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
V. Caveira
10'
J. Conceicao
17'
V. Caveira
63'
ChristopherPenalty
75'
H. Victor
81'
Christopher

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista 6 – 0 Barcelona EC

Paulista beat Barcelona EC 6-0 in Paulista Série B on May 17, 2024.

Goals: V. Caveira (5', 17'), J. Conceicao (10'), Christopher (63' pen, 81'), H. Victor (75').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Jayme Pinheiro de Ulhôa Cintra in Jundiaí, São Paulo.