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Barcelona EC vs Paulista — Paulista Série B 2026

Barcelona EC
Barcelona EC
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Paulista
Paulista
Enzo 90+1', 81'
M. Yen 85'
G. Reis 49'
Leo Kevin 30'
6/22/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Conde Rodolfo Crespi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Barcelona EC5%
×Draw15%
Paulista80%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona EC
0.42
Paulista
2.29

Paulista creates 445% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Barcelona EC
0.44
Paulista
1.90

allows per match

Barcelona EC
2.67
Paulista
0.40

finishing

Barcelona EC+0.00on par
Paulista+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No: 69Yes: 3169%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona EC ↓

Paulista →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–115%
0–218%
0–313%
0–48%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (18%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Barcelona EC or draw
20%
Barcelona EC or Paulista
85%
Draw or Paulista
95%

Winning margin

Barcelona EC wins by 2+
1%
Paulista wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Barcelona EC 1+ goals
34%
Barcelona EC 2+ goals
7%
Barcelona EC 3+ goals
1%
Paulista 1+ goals
90%
Paulista 2+ goals
66%
Paulista 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Barcelona EC (draw refunded)
6%
Paulista (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona EC at home — creates 0.44, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

Paulista away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona EC attack 0.44 + Paulista defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.42

Paulista attack 1.90 + Barcelona EC defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Barcelona EC scores more
5%
level
15%
Paulista scores more
80%

Paulista at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Paulista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
Leo Kevin
49'
G. Reis
81'
Enzo
85'
M. Yen
90+1'
Enzo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Barcelona EC 0–5 Paulista

Paulista beat Barcelona EC 5-0 in Paulista Série B on June 22, 2024.

Goals: Leo Kevin (30'), G. Reis (49'), Enzo (81', 90+1'), M. Yen (85').

The match was played at Estádio Conde Rodolfo Crespi in São Paulo, São Paulo.