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Paulínia FU vs Gremio Osasco Audax — Paulista Série B 2026

Paulínia FU
Paulínia FU
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Gremio Osasco Audax
Gremio Osasco Audax
Joao Tataccioli 56'
Jailson 85'
Bruce 42'
Rafael Alves 36'
5/31/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Paulínia FU43%
×Draw24%
Gremio Osasco Audax33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paulínia FU
1.67
Gremio Osasco Audax
1.42

Paulínia FU creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Paulínia FU
2.00
Gremio Osasco Audax
1.33

allows per match

Paulínia FU
1.50
Gremio Osasco Audax
1.33

finishing

Paulínia FU+0.00on par
Gremio Osasco Audax+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paulínia FU ↓

Gremio Osasco Audax →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Paulínia FU or draw
67%
Paulínia FU or Gremio Osasco Audax
76%
Draw or Gremio Osasco Audax
57%

Winning margin

Paulínia FU wins by 2+
22%
Gremio Osasco Audax wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Paulínia FU 1+ goals
81%
Paulínia FU 2+ goals
50%
Paulínia FU 3+ goals
23%
Gremio Osasco Audax 1+ goals
76%
Gremio Osasco Audax 2+ goals
41%
Gremio Osasco Audax 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Paulínia FU (draw refunded)
57%
Gremio Osasco Audax (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paulínia FU at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Gremio Osasco Audax away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paulínia FU attack 2.00 + Gremio Osasco Audax defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Gremio Osasco Audax attack 1.33 + Paulínia FU defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Paulínia FU scores more
43%
level
24%
Gremio Osasco Audax scores more
33%

Paulínia FU at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Paulínia FU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
Rafael Alves
42'
Bruce
56'
Joao Tataccioli
79'
85'
Jailson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulínia FU 1 – 3 Gremio Osasco Audax

Gremio Osasco Audax beat Paulínia FU 3-1 in Paulista Série B on May 31, 2026.

Goals: Rafael Alves (36'), Bruce (42'), Joao Tataccioli (56'), Jailson (85').