Gremio Osasco Audax 2–0 Paulínia FU: Result & Stats

Gremio Osasco Audax

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Paulínia FU

Jailson 88'

Bruce 49'

4/26/2026

Paulista Série B · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gremio Osasco Audax71%

×Draw23%

Paulínia FU5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gremio Osasco AudaxExpected goals in this matchPaulínia FU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.25

Gremio Osasco Audax

1.58

Paulínia FU

0.25

Gremio Osasco Audax creates 532% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

0.00

0.50

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Gremio Osasco Audax

1.33

Paulínia FU

0.00

allows per match

Gremio Osasco Audax

0.50

Paulínia FU

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio Osasco Audax+0.00on par

Paulínia FU+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No82
Yes18

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Osasco Audax ↓

Paulínia FU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–025%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–020%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–13%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (25%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Gremio Osasco Audax or draw

95%

Gremio Osasco Audax or Paulínia FU

77%

Draw or Paulínia FU

29%

Winning margin

Gremio Osasco Audax wins by 2+

41%

Paulínia FU wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Gremio Osasco Audax 1+ goals

79%

Gremio Osasco Audax 2+ goals

47%

Gremio Osasco Audax 3+ goals

21%

Paulínia FU 1+ goals

22%

Paulínia FU 2+ goals

3%

Paulínia FU 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Gremio Osasco Audax (draw refunded)

93%

Paulínia FU (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

11%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Osasco Audax at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Paulínia FU away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Osasco Audax attack 1.33 + Paulínia FU defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Paulínia FU attack 0.00 + Gremio Osasco Audax defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Gremio Osasco Audax scores more

71%

level

23%

Paulínia FU scores more

5%

Gremio Osasco Audax at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Gremio Osasco Audax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

Bruce

88'

Jailson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff