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Paulínia FU vs Flamengo SP — Paulista Série B 2026

Paulínia FU
Paulínia FU
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Flamengo SP
Flamengo SP
M. A. dos Reis Maia 62'
Patrick Leme 56'
Vinicius Molina 78'
L. Silva 51' (pen)
5/10/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Paulínia FU39%
×Draw25%
Flamengo SP37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paulínia FU
1.48
Flamengo SP
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

creates per match

Paulínia FU
2.00
Flamengo SP
1.37

allows per match

Paulínia FU
1.50
Flamengo SP
0.95

finishing

Paulínia FU+0.00on par
Flamengo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paulínia FU ↓

Flamengo SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Paulínia FU or draw
63%
Paulínia FU or Flamengo SP
75%
Draw or Flamengo SP
61%

Winning margin

Paulínia FU wins by 2+
18%
Flamengo SP wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Paulínia FU 1+ goals
77%
Paulínia FU 2+ goals
43%
Paulínia FU 3+ goals
19%
Flamengo SP 1+ goals
76%
Flamengo SP 2+ goals
42%
Flamengo SP 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Paulínia FU (draw refunded)
51%
Flamengo SP (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paulínia FU at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Flamengo SP away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paulínia FU attack 2.00 + Flamengo SP defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.48

Flamengo SP attack 1.37 + Paulínia FU defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Paulínia FU scores more
39%
level
25%
Flamengo SP scores more
37%

Paulínia FU at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Paulínia FU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
L. SilvaPenalty
56'
Patrick Leme
62'
M. A. dos Reis Maia
78'
Vinicius Molina
87'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paulínia FU vs Flamengo SP

Paulínia FU and Flamengo SP drew 2-2 in Paulista Série B on May 10, 2026.

Goals: L. Silva (51' pen), Patrick Leme (56'), M. A. dos Reis Maia (62'), Vinicius Molina (78').