Flamengo SP 1–0 Paulínia FU: Result & Stats

Flamengo SP

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Paulínia FU

Vinicius Molina 53'

6/13/2026

Paulista Série B · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Flamengo SP70%

×Draw21%

Paulínia FU9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flamengo SPExpected goals in this matchPaulínia FU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.45

Flamengo SP

1.79

Paulínia FU

0.45

Flamengo SP creates 298% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

1.74

creates per match

0.00

0.89

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Flamengo SP

1.74

Paulínia FU

0.00

allows per match

Flamengo SP

0.89

Paulínia FU

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamengo SP+0.00on par

Paulínia FU+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo SP ↓

Paulínia FU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Flamengo SP or draw

91%

Flamengo SP or Paulínia FU

79%

Draw or Paulínia FU

30%

Winning margin

Flamengo SP wins by 2+

42%

Paulínia FU wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Flamengo SP 1+ goals

83%

Flamengo SP 2+ goals

53%

Flamengo SP 3+ goals

26%

Paulínia FU 1+ goals

36%

Paulínia FU 2+ goals

8%

Paulínia FU 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Flamengo SP (draw refunded)

89%

Paulínia FU (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo SP at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Paulínia FU away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo SP attack 1.74 + Paulínia FU defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

Paulínia FU attack 0.00 + Flamengo SP defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Flamengo SP scores more

70%

level

21%

Paulínia FU scores more

9%

Flamengo SP at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Flamengo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

Vinicius Molina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff