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Paulinia FU U20 vs Capivariano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Paulinia FU U20
Paulinia FU U20
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Capivariano U20
Capivariano U20
Unknown 60'
A. R. Campos Rubia 26'
Juninho 90+2'
d. S. Alisson G. M. 8', 6'
6/7/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Luís Perissinotto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Paulinia FU U2033%
×Draw23%
Capivariano U2044%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paulinia FU U20
1.50
Capivariano U20
1.75

Capivariano U20 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

Paulinia FU U20
1.60
Capivariano U20
1.29

allows per match

Paulinia FU U20
2.20
Capivariano U20
1.41

finishing

Paulinia FU U20+0.00on par
Capivariano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paulinia FU U20 ↓

Capivariano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Paulinia FU U20 or draw
56%
Paulinia FU U20 or Capivariano U20
77%
Draw or Capivariano U20
67%

Winning margin

Paulinia FU U20 wins by 2+
16%
Capivariano U20 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Paulinia FU U20 1+ goals
78%
Paulinia FU U20 2+ goals
44%
Paulinia FU U20 3+ goals
19%
Capivariano U20 1+ goals
83%
Capivariano U20 2+ goals
52%
Capivariano U20 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Paulinia FU U20 (draw refunded)
43%
Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paulinia FU U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Capivariano U20 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paulinia FU U20 attack 1.60 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Capivariano U20 attack 1.29 + Paulinia FU U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Paulinia FU U20 scores more
33%
level
23%
Capivariano U20 scores more
44%

Capivariano U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Capivariano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
d. S. Alisson G. M.
8'
d. S. Alisson G. M.
26'
A. R. Campos Rubia
60'
90+2'
Juninho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Paulinia FU U20 2–3 Capivariano U20

Capivariano U20 beat Paulinia FU U20 3-2 in Paulista - U20 on June 7, 2024.

Goals: d. S. Alisson G. M. (6', 8'), A. R. Campos Rubia (26'), ? (60'), Juninho (90+2').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Luís Perissinotto in Paulínia, São Paulo.