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Capivariano U20 vs Paulinia FU U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Capivariano U20
Capivariano U20
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Paulinia FU U20
Paulinia FU U20
L. Sampaio 85'
P. Henrique 41'
K. E. do Nascimento Pereira dos Santos 34'
I. Santos 90+3'
H. Carvalho Eburneo 37'
Deividi Buiu 21'
5/3/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Arena Capivari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Capivariano U2069%
×Draw18%
Paulinia FU U2014%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Capivariano U20
2.42
Paulinia FU U20
0.99

Capivariano U20 creates 144% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 5 away

creates per match

Capivariano U20
1.65
Paulinia FU U20
0.80

allows per match

Capivariano U20
1.18
Paulinia FU U20
3.20

finishing

Capivariano U20+0.00on par
Paulinia FU U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capivariano U20 ↓

Paulinia FU U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Capivariano U20 or draw
86%
Capivariano U20 or Paulinia FU U20
82%
Draw or Paulinia FU U20
31%

Winning margin

Capivariano U20 wins by 2+
46%
Paulinia FU U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Capivariano U20 1+ goals
91%
Capivariano U20 2+ goals
69%
Capivariano U20 3+ goals
43%
Paulinia FU U20 1+ goals
63%
Paulinia FU U20 2+ goals
26%
Paulinia FU U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)
83%
Paulinia FU U20 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capivariano U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Paulinia FU U20 away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capivariano U20 attack 1.65 + Paulinia FU U20 defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.42

Paulinia FU U20 attack 0.80 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Capivariano U20 scores more
69%
level
18%
Paulinia FU U20 scores more
14%

Capivariano U20 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Capivariano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Deividi Buiu
34'
K. E. do Nascimento Pereira dos Santos
37'
H. Carvalho Eburneo
41'
P. Henrique
85'
L. Sampaio
90+3'
I. Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Capivariano U20 vs Paulinia FU U20

Capivariano U20 and Paulinia FU U20 drew 3-3 in Paulista - U20 on May 3, 2024.

Goals: Deividi Buiu (21'), K. E. do Nascimento Pereira dos Santos (34'), H. Carvalho Eburneo (37'), P. Henrique (41'), L. Sampaio (85'), I. Santos (90+3').

The match was played at Arena Capivari in Capivari, São Paulo.