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PAU vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

PAU
PAU
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Niort
Niort
Q. Boisgard 12'
3/11/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 27Stade Nouste Camp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

PAU46%
×Draw26%
Niort28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAU
1.44
Niort
1.05

PAU creates 37% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 93 away

creates per match

PAU
1.32
Niort
0.84

allows per match

PAU
1.27
Niort
1.55

finishing

PAU+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

PAU or draw
72%
PAU or Niort
74%
Draw or Niort
54%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+
22%
Niort wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals
76%
PAU 2+ goals
42%
PAU 3+ goals
18%
Niort 1+ goals
65%
Niort 2+ goals
28%
Niort 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)
63%
Niort (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

Niort away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.32 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Niort attack 0.84 + PAU defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

PAU scores more
46%
level
26%
Niort scores more
28%

PAU at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "PAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
H. SaivetPAUPAU · M
8.5

Match Events

12'
Q. Boisgard↳ H. Saivet
39'
Bilal Boutobba
51'
S. Renel← M. Zemzemi
62'
Steeve Beusnard
63'
J. Moutachy← J. Olaitan
67'
M. Bassouamina← E. Sylvestre
78'
Junior Flemmings
79'
Charles Kabore
82'
N. Sow← Q. Boisgard
82'
R. Bakayoko← J. Flemmings
90+1'
Nathan Monzango
90'
N. Monzango← S. Beusnard

Possession

54%PAU

Shots

12PAU

Pass accuracy

51%PAU

Statistics

PAUNiort
Overview
54%Possession46%
12Total Shots9
5Corners5
16Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots9
8On Target3
3Off Target3
1Blocked3
7Inside Box5
5Outside Box4
Passing
54%Possession46%
462Total Passes396
378Accurate Passes310
82%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves7
Discipline
16Fouls13
2Yellow Cards3
3Offsides0

Match Recap: PAU vs Niort

PAU beat Niort 1-0 in Ligue 2 on March 11, 2023.

Goals: Q. Boisgard (12').

PAU controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade Nouste Camp in Bizanos.