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PAU vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

PAU
PAU
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Niort
Niort
S. Essende 56', 16'
B. Boutobba 31'
M. Zemzemi 8'
5/7/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 37Stade Nouste Camp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

PAU46%
×Draw26%
Niort28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAU
1.44
Niort
1.05

PAU creates 37% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 93 away

creates per match

PAU
1.32
Niort
0.84

allows per match

PAU
1.27
Niort
1.55

finishing

PAU+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

PAU or draw
72%
PAU or Niort
74%
Draw or Niort
54%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+
22%
Niort wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals
76%
PAU 2+ goals
42%
PAU 3+ goals
18%
Niort 1+ goals
65%
Niort 2+ goals
28%
Niort 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)
63%
Niort (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

Niort away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.32 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Niort attack 0.84 + PAU defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

PAU scores more
46%
level
26%
Niort scores more
28%

PAU at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "PAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
S. EssendePAUPAU · F
8.9

Match Events

8'
M. Zemzemi↳ T. Tormin
16'
S. Essende↳ J. Evans
31'
B. Boutobba↳ M. Zemzemi
56'
S. Essende
59'
V. Lobry← Z. Naidji
59'
F. El Melali← Cafimipon Gomis
64'
G. Bentil← T. Tormin
77'
M. Dembélé← S. Essende
81'
G. Kilama← Joseph Mendes
87'
J. Khasa← R. Armand

Possession

66%PAU

Shots

14PAU

Pass accuracy

53%PAU

Statistics

PAUNiort
Overview
66%Possession34%
14Total Shots9
11Corners2
10Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots9
3On Target3
5Off Target6
6Blocked0
10Inside Box7
4Outside Box2
Passing
66%Possession34%
585Total Passes310
511Accurate Passes240
87%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls10
2Offsides3

Match Recap: PAU vs Niort

PAU and Niort drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on May 7, 2022.

Goals: M. Zemzemi (8'), S. Essende (16', 56'), B. Boutobba (31').

PAU controlled possession (66%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade Nouste Camp in Bizanos.