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PAU vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

PAU
PAU
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Niort
Niort
R. Armand 90+1'
C. Sabaly 80', 45'
E. Assifuah 38'
B. Doukansy 13'
10/24/2020Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade Municipal du Hameau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

PAU46%
×Draw26%
Niort28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAU
1.44
Niort
1.05

PAU creates 37% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 93 away

creates per match

PAU
1.32
Niort
0.84

allows per match

PAU
1.27
Niort
1.55

finishing

PAU+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

PAU or draw
72%
PAU or Niort
74%
Draw or Niort
54%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+
22%
Niort wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals
76%
PAU 2+ goals
42%
PAU 3+ goals
18%
Niort 1+ goals
65%
Niort 2+ goals
28%
Niort 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)
63%
Niort (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

Niort away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.32 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Niort attack 0.84 + PAU defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

PAU scores more
46%
level
26%
Niort scores more
28%

PAU at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "PAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
C. SabalyPAUPAU · M
9.6

Match Events

13'
B. Doukansy↳ B. Boutobba
20'
Issouf Paro
36'
Victor Lobry
38'
E. Assifuah↳ S. Sadzoute
45'
C. Sabaly↳ S. Beusnard
46'
S. Renel← V. Jacob
46'
L. Vallier← D. Yongwa Ngameni
52'
R. Armand← Y. Jarju
59'
Antoine Batisse
59'
Q. Daubin← V. Lobry
72'
A. Baroan← B. Boutobba
73'
L. Ameka← J. Moutachy
75'
Steeve Beusnard
78'
A. Ndiaye← X. Kouassi
78'
R. Bayard← S. Beusnard
80'
C. Sabaly
84'
Q. Bena← D. Louiserre
90'
Mathieu Michel
90+1'
R. Armand↳ C. Sabaly

Possession

49%PAU

Shots

24PAU

Pass accuracy

49%PAU

Statistics

PAUNiort
Overview
49%Possession51%
24Total Shots15
5Corners4
18Fouls12
Shots
24Total Shots15
14On Target6
7Off Target6
3Blocked3
17Inside Box6
7Outside Box9
Passing
49%Possession51%
407Total Passes420
317Accurate Passes338
78%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
5Saves10
Discipline
18Fouls12
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
4Offsides1

PAU 4 – 1 Niort

PAU beat Niort 4-1 in Ligue 2 on October 24, 2020.

Goals: B. Doukansy (13'), E. Assifuah (38'), C. Sabaly (45', 80'), R. Armand (90+1').

Niort controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 24.

The match was played at Stade Municipal du Hameau in Pau.