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PAU vs Guingamp — Ligue 2 2018

PAU
PAU
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Guingamp
Guingamp
A. Mille 43'
A. Sagna 81'
H. Picard 56'
R. Ghrieb 40'
5/10/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 34Stade Nouste Camp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

PAU38%
×Draw27%
Guingamp36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAU
1.31
Guingamp
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 129 away

creates per match

PAU
1.32
Guingamp
1.25

allows per match

PAU
1.27
Guingamp
1.29

finishing

PAU+0.00on par
Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Guingamp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

PAU or draw
64%
PAU or Guingamp
73%
Draw or Guingamp
62%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+
17%
Guingamp wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals
73%
PAU 2+ goals
38%
PAU 3+ goals
14%
Guingamp 1+ goals
72%
Guingamp 2+ goals
36%
Guingamp 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)
52%
Guingamp (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

Guingamp away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.32 + Guingamp defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Guingamp attack 1.25 + PAU defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

PAU scores more
38%
level
27%
Guingamp scores more
36%

PAU at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "PAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
R. GhriebGuingampGuingamp · M
8.6

Match Events

17'
Pathé Mboup
40'
R. Ghrieb
43'
A. Mille↳ T. Koudou
53'
Pathé Mboup
53'
Bingourou Kamara
53'
Pathé Mboup
56'
H. Picard↳ R. Ghrieb
66'
Kalidou Sidibé
68'
T. Le Bris← A. Hemia
68'
M. Riou← K. Sidibé
69'
D. Meddah← X. Kouassi
69'
T. Arconte← K. Boutaïb
77'
A. Sagna← J. Siwe
77'
S. Guendouz← R. Ghrieb
78'
J. Kalulu← J. Obiang
78'
M. Chahiri← S. Beusnard
81'
A. Sagna↳ H. Picard
82'
T. Luvambo← D. Louiserre
85'
Hugo Picard
86'
T. Gomes← O. Ngom

Possession

47%PAU

Shots

8PAU

Pass accuracy

49%PAU

Statistics

PAUGuingamp
Overview
47%Possession53%
8Total Shots13
5Corners5
9Fouls10
Shots
8Total Shots13
2On Target8
4Off Target5
2Blocked0
5Inside Box8
3Outside Box5
Passing
47%Possession53%
469Total Passes536
401Accurate Passes472
86%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls10
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
0Offsides6

Ligue 2: PAU 1–3 Guingamp

Guingamp beat PAU 3-1 in Ligue 2 on May 10, 2025.

Goals: R. Ghrieb (40'), A. Mille (43'), H. Picard (56'), A. Sagna (81').

Guingamp controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade Nouste Camp in Bizanos.