Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guingamp vs PAU — Ligue 2 2018

Guingamp
Guingamp
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
PAU
PAU
K. Boutaïb 58'
10/18/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Guingamp45%
×Draw25%
PAU29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guingamp
1.52
PAU
1.17

Guingamp creates 30% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 110 away

creates per match

Guingamp
1.40
PAU
1.14

allows per match

Guingamp
1.20
PAU
1.65

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par
PAU+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

PAU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw
71%
Guingamp or PAU
75%
Draw or PAU
55%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+
23%
PAU wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals
78%
Guingamp 2+ goals
45%
Guingamp 3+ goals
20%
PAU 1+ goals
69%
PAU 2+ goals
33%
PAU 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)
61%
PAU (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 126 matches

PAU away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.40 + PAU defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.52

PAU attack 1.14 + Guingamp defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guingamp scores more
45%
level
25%
PAU scores more
29%

Guingamp at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
P. LemonnierGuingampGuingamp · D
8.0

Match Events

1'
Steeve Beusnard
6'
Lucas Maronnier
40'
Antonin Bobichon
58'
K. Boutaïb↳ T. Koudou
61'
B. Labeau← T. Luvambo
62'
A. Sagna← R. Ghrieb
69'
X. Kouassi← S. Beusnard
70'
J. Kalulu← K. Boto
71'
D. Ourega← L. Maronnier
71'
K. Diawara← K. Boutaïb
75'
S. Guendouz← H. Picard
82'
Y. Njoh← P. Mboup
82'
M. Chahiri← T. Arconte
86'
Kalidou Sidibé
90+1'
Therence Koudou

Possession

64%Guingamp

Shots

13Guingamp

Pass accuracy

54%Guingamp

Statistics

GuingampPAU
Overview
64%Possession36%
13Total Shots11
6Corners4
11Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots11
5On Target5
6Off Target4
2Blocked2
8Inside Box6
5Outside Box5
Passing
64%Possession36%
585Total Passes329
506Accurate Passes239
86%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Guingamp vs PAU

PAU beat Guingamp 1-0 in Ligue 2 on October 18, 2024.

Goals: K. Boutaïb (58').

Guingamp controlled possession (64%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade du Roudourou in Guingamp.