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PAU vs Caen — Ligue 2 2018

PAU
PAU
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Caen
Caen
6/2/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 38Stade Nouste Camp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

PAU43%
×Draw26%
Caen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAU
1.43
Caen
1.19

PAU creates 20% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 107 away

creates per match

PAU
1.32
Caen
1.10

allows per match

PAU
1.27
Caen
1.53

finishing

PAU+0.00on par
Caen+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Caen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

PAU or draw
69%
PAU or Caen
74%
Draw or Caen
57%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+
20%
Caen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals
76%
PAU 2+ goals
42%
PAU 3+ goals
17%
Caen 1+ goals
70%
Caen 2+ goals
33%
Caen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)
58%
Caen (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

Caen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.53 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.32 + Caen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Caen attack 1.10 + PAU defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

PAU scores more
43%
level
26%
Caen scores more
31%

PAU at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "PAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PAU vs Caen

PAU beat Caen 1-0 in Ligue 2 on June 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Nouste Camp in Bizanos.