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Caen vs PAU — Ligue 2 2018

Caen
Caen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
PAU
PAU
2/22/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade Michel d'Ornano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Caen46%
×Draw26%
PAU28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caen
1.45
PAU
1.07

Caen creates 36% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 110 away

creates per match

Caen
1.25
PAU
1.14

allows per match

Caen
1.00
PAU
1.65

finishing

Caen+0.00on par
PAU+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caen ↓

PAU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Caen or draw
72%
Caen or PAU
74%
Draw or PAU
54%

Winning margin

Caen wins by 2+
22%
PAU wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Caen 1+ goals
77%
Caen 2+ goals
42%
Caen 3+ goals
18%
PAU 1+ goals
66%
PAU 2+ goals
29%
PAU 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Caen (draw refunded)
62%
PAU (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caen at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 107 matches

PAU away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caen attack 1.25 + PAU defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.45

PAU attack 1.14 + Caen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Caen scores more
46%
level
26%
PAU scores more
28%

Caen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Caen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Caen 2 – 2 PAU

Caen and PAU drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Caen.