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PAU vs Boulogne — Ligue 2 2018

PAU
PAU
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Boulogne
Boulogne
A. Bobichon 90' (pen)
A. El Farissi 85'
M. Lecolier 67'
2/13/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 23Nouste Camp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

PAU40%
×Draw27%
Boulogne32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAU
1.31
Boulogne
1.14

PAU creates 15% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 28 away

creates per match

PAU
1.32
Boulogne
1.00

allows per match

PAU
1.27
Boulogne
1.29

finishing

PAU+0.00on par
Boulogne+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Boulogne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

PAU or draw
68%
PAU or Boulogne
73%
Draw or Boulogne
60%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+
18%
Boulogne wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals
73%
PAU 2+ goals
38%
PAU 3+ goals
14%
Boulogne 1+ goals
68%
Boulogne 2+ goals
32%
Boulogne 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)
56%
Boulogne (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

Boulogne away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.32 + Boulogne defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Boulogne attack 1.00 + PAU defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

PAU scores more
40%
level
27%
Boulogne scores more
32%

PAU at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "PAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. El FarissiBoulogneBoulogne · F
8.2

Match Events

28'
Amine El Farissi
37'
Julien Boyer
42'
Steeve Beusnard
43'
Blondy Nna Noukeu
49'
Siad Gourville
60'
Joseph Kalulu Kyatengwa
60'
O. Sadik← O. Sissoko
64'
N. Fatar← Z. Moco
65'
J. Bultel← J. Martin
67'
M. Lecolier↳ A. El Farissi
70'
K. Dong← D. Meddah
79'
G. Capuano← M. Lecolier
80'
E. Kouassi← J. Boyer
81'
A. Bobichon← J. Anziani
85'
A. El Farissi↳ J. Bultel
88'
S. Duflos← A. El Farissi
90'
A. BobichonPenalty

Possession

68%PAU

Shots

10PAU

Pass accuracy

54%PAU

Statistics

PAUBoulogne
Overview
68%Possession32%
10Total Shots9
5Corners3
10Fouls16
Shots
10Total Shots9
4On Target4
1Off Target2
5Blocked3
3Inside Box3
7Outside Box6
Passing
68%Possession32%
586Total Passes280
524Accurate Passes214
89%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls16
1Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: PAU vs Boulogne

Boulogne beat PAU 2-1 in Ligue 2 on February 13, 2026.

Goals: M. Lecolier (67'), A. El Farissi (85'), A. Bobichon (90' pen).

PAU controlled possession (68%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Nouste Camp in Pau.