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PAU vs Boulogne — League #63 2026

PAU
PAU
CANC
22:00
Boulogne
Boulogne
5/7/2020League #63League #63 · Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

PAU51%
×Draw27%
Boulogne22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAU
1.41
Boulogne
0.81

PAU creates 74% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 34 away

creates per match

PAU
1.50
Boulogne
1.00

allows per match

PAU
0.63
Boulogne
1.32

finishing

PAU+0.00on par
Boulogne+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Boulogne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

PAU or draw
78%
PAU or Boulogne
73%
Draw or Boulogne
49%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+
25%
Boulogne wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals
76%
PAU 2+ goals
41%
PAU 3+ goals
17%
Boulogne 1+ goals
56%
Boulogne 2+ goals
19%
Boulogne 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)
70%
Boulogne (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Boulogne away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.50 + Boulogne defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Boulogne attack 1.00 + PAU defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

PAU scores more
51%
level
27%
Boulogne scores more
22%

PAU at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "PAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: PAU host Boulogne

May 7, 2020: PAU take on Boulogne in League #63. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.