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PAU vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

PAU
PAU
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Bastia
Bastia
J. Anziani 31'
O. Sissoko 4'
C. Vincent 90'
J. Eickmayer 13'
3/6/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 26Nouste Camp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

PAU41%
×Draw27%
Bastia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAU
1.33
Bastia
1.15

PAU creates 16% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 91 away

creates per match

PAU
1.32
Bastia
1.03

allows per match

PAU
1.27
Bastia
1.33

finishing

PAU+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

PAU or draw
68%
PAU or Bastia
73%
Draw or Bastia
59%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+
19%
Bastia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals
74%
PAU 2+ goals
38%
PAU 3+ goals
15%
Bastia 1+ goals
68%
Bastia 2+ goals
32%
Bastia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)
56%
Bastia (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.32 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bastia attack 1.03 + PAU defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

PAU scores more
41%
level
27%
Bastia scores more
32%

PAU at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "PAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
J. AnzianiPAUPAU · M
8.2

Match Events

4'
O. Sissoko↳ K. Dong
13'
J. Eickmayer
31'
J. Anziani↳ K. Dong
46'
R. Touzghar← K. Dong
46'
R. Beliandjou← F. Tomi
51'
Amine Boutrah
57'
C. Fall← A. Briancon
60'
A. Zaouai← J. Janneh
66'
Juan Guevara
69'
Gustave Akueson
74'
C. Vincent← T. Ducrocq
74'
I. Karamoko← A. Boutrah
79'
N. Glossoa← T. Pouilly
83'
O. Sadik← O. Sissoko
84'
A. Bobichon← G. Versini
84'
V. Lebas da Silva← F. Bohnert
85'
Noah Raveyre
90'
C. Vincent

Possession

44%PAU

Shots

7PAU

Pass accuracy

49%PAU

Statistics

PAUBastia
Overview
44%Possession56%
7Total Shots16
4Corners5
20Fouls19
Shots
7Total Shots16
2On Target5
4Off Target8
1Blocked3
3Inside Box7
4Outside Box9
Passing
44%Possession56%
373Total Passes468
304Accurate Passes406
82%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
20Fouls19
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

PAU 2 – 2 Bastia

PAU and Bastia drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on March 6, 2026.

Goals: O. Sissoko (4'), J. Eickmayer (13'), J. Anziani (31'), C. Vincent (90').

Bastia controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Nouste Camp in Pau.