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PAU vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

PAU
PAU
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bastia
Bastia
M. Bassouamina 7'
M. Alfarela 83', 70'
5/10/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 37Stade Nouste Camp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

PAU41%
×Draw27%
Bastia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PAU
1.33
Bastia
1.15

PAU creates 16% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 91 away

creates per match

PAU
1.32
Bastia
1.03

allows per match

PAU
1.27
Bastia
1.33

finishing

PAU+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PAU ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

PAU or draw
68%
PAU or Bastia
73%
Draw or Bastia
59%

Winning margin

PAU wins by 2+
19%
Bastia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

PAU 1+ goals
74%
PAU 2+ goals
38%
PAU 3+ goals
15%
Bastia 1+ goals
68%
Bastia 2+ goals
32%
Bastia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

PAU (draw refunded)
56%
Bastia (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PAU at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PAU attack 1.32 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bastia attack 1.03 + PAU defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

PAU scores more
41%
level
27%
Bastia scores more
32%

PAU at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "PAU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. AlfarelaBastiaBastia · F
8.2

Match Events

3'
Tino Costa
7'
M. Bassouamina↳ T. Costa
21'
Y. Begraoui← T. Costa
55'
Jean Ruiz
64'
L. Mouton← S. DAlmeida
64'
T. Colléaux← C. Boli
64'
C. Vincent← M. Siby
64'
B. Santelli← G. Charbonnier
68'
F. Bianchini← F. Tomi
70'
M. Alfarela
74'
Louis Mouton
76'
Christophe Vincent
79'
M. Chahiri← M. Bassouamina
79'
I. Mohamed← S. Beusnard
83'
M. Alfarela↳ F. Bianchini
90+3'
Florian Bianchini

Possession

54%PAU

Shots

6PAU

Pass accuracy

52%PAU

Statistics

PAUBastia
Overview
54%Possession46%
6Total Shots13
7Corners6
19Fouls18
Shots
6Total Shots13
1On Target6
4Off Target5
1Blocked2
3Inside Box10
3Outside Box3
Passing
54%Possession46%
460Total Passes382
354Accurate Passes273
77%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
19Fouls18
3Yellow Cards2
4Offsides2

Ligue 2: PAU 1–2 Bastia

Bastia beat PAU 2-1 in Ligue 2 on May 10, 2024.

Goals: M. Bassouamina (7'), M. Alfarela (70', 83').

PAU controlled possession (54%) and registered 6 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stade Nouste Camp in Bizanos.