Celtic 0–3 AC Milan: Result & Stats

Celtic

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

AC Milan

M. Balotelli 60'

C. Zapata 49'

Kaká 13'

11/26/2013

UEFA Champions League · Group stage - 5Celtic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Celtic41%

×Draw26%

AC Milan34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CelticExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.28

Celtic

1.43

AC Milan

1.28

Celtic creates 12% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.86

creates per match

1.20

1.36

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Celtic

1.86

AC Milan

1.20

allows per match

Celtic

1.36

AC Milan

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celtic+0.00on par

AC Milan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtic ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Celtic or draw

66%

Celtic or AC Milan

74%

Draw or AC Milan

59%

Winning margin

Celtic wins by 2+

19%

AC Milan wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Celtic 1+ goals

76%

Celtic 2+ goals

42%

Celtic 3+ goals

17%

AC Milan 1+ goals

72%

AC Milan 2+ goals

37%

AC Milan 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Celtic (draw refunded)

55%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celtic at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celtic attack 1.86 + AC Milan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

AC Milan attack 1.20 + Celtic defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Celtic scores more

41%

level

26%

AC Milan scores more

34%

Celtic at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Kaká↳ V. Birsa

31'

J. Ledley← B. Kayal

48'

A. Nocerino← I. Abate

49'

C. Zapata↳ A. Nocerino

60'

M. Balotelli↳ R. Montolivo

65'

A. Stokes← K. Commons

72'

K. Constant← V. Birsa

80'

T. Rogić← J. Forrest

80'

Robinho← Kaká

Celtic

AC

32

Abbiati

25

Bonera

17

⚽

Zapata

20

▼

Abate

14

A

▼

Birsa

34

Jong

28

Emanuelso

18

A

Montolivo

16

Poli

22

⚽

▼

Kaká

45

⚽

1

3

21

23

4

5

15

▼

Commons

33

▼

Kayal

49

▼

Forrest

9

Samaras

11

Boerrigte

31'▲J. Ledley←▼B. Kayal

65'▲A. Stokes←▼K. Commons

80'▲T. Rogić←▼J. Forrest

Celtic substitutes

16Ledley10Stokes18Rogić17Baldé20Pukki24Zaluska41Fisher

48'▲A. Nocerino←▼I. Abate

72'▲K. Constant←▼V. Birsa

80'▲Robinho←▼Kaká

AC Milan substitutes

23Nocerino21Constant7Robinho9Matri24Cristante26Silvestre35Coppola