Celtic 1–3 AC Milan: Result & Stats

Celtic

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

AC Milan

M. Elyounoussi 76'

J. Hauge 90+2'

Brahim Díaz 42'

R. Krunić 14'

10/22/2020

UEFA Europa League · Group H - 1Celtic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Celtic34%

×Draw25%

AC Milan41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CelticExpected goals in this matchAC Milan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.52

Celtic

1.35

AC Milan

1.52

AC Milan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

1.70

creates per match

1.44

1.61

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Celtic

1.70

AC Milan

1.44

allows per match

Celtic

1.61

AC Milan

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Celtic+0.00on par

AC Milan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtic ↓

AC Milan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Celtic or draw

59%

Celtic or AC Milan

75%

Draw or AC Milan

66%

Winning margin

Celtic wins by 2+

15%

AC Milan wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Celtic 1+ goals

74%

Celtic 2+ goals

39%

Celtic 3+ goals

15%

AC Milan 1+ goals

78%

AC Milan 2+ goals

45%

AC Milan 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Celtic (draw refunded)

45%

AC Milan (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celtic at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celtic attack 1.70 + AC Milan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

AC Milan attack 1.44 + Celtic defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Celtic scores more

34%

level

25%

AC Milan scores more

41%

AC Milan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

R. Christie

Celtic · M

7.7

Match Events

14'

R. Krunić↳ Samu Castillejo

42'

Brahim Díaz↳ T. Hernández

46'

M. Elyounoussi← S. Welsh

46'

R. Christie← L. Griffiths

64'

T. Rogić← S. Brown

65'

Diego Laxalt

66'

Rafael Leão← Z. Ibrahimović

66'

I. Bennacer← F. Kessié

76'

M. Elyounoussi↳ R. Christie

77'

P. Klimala← A. Ajeti

77'

G. Taylor← D. Laxalt

79'

A. Saelemaekers← Samu Castillejo

80'

J. Hauge← Brahim Díaz

82'

83'

86'

88'

90+2'

J. Hauge↳ A. Saelemaekers

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CelticAC

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots6

3Corners0

16Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots6

2On Target3

7Off Target0

4Blocked3

7Inside Box4

6Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

437Total Passes531

366Accurate Passes447

84%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0