Pattaya United 1–3 Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Pattaya United

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

9/23/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 6Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pattaya United30%

×Draw26%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pattaya UnitedExpected goals in this matchNakhon Ratchasima FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.50

Pattaya United

1.17

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.50

Nakhon Ratchasima FC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 17 away

1.16

creates per match

1.65

1.35

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Pattaya United

1.16

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.65

allows per match

Pattaya United

1.35

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pattaya United+0.00on par

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pattaya United ↓

Nakhon Ratchasima FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Pattaya United or draw

55%

Pattaya United or Nakhon Ratchasima FC

74%

Draw or Nakhon Ratchasima FC

70%

Winning margin

Pattaya United wins by 2+

12%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Pattaya United 1+ goals

69%

Pattaya United 2+ goals

33%

Pattaya United 3+ goals

11%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals

78%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals

44%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Pattaya United (draw refunded)

40%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pattaya United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 43 matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pattaya United attack 1.16 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.65 + Pattaya United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pattaya United scores more

30%

level

26%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more

45%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff