Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5–1 Pattaya United

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Pattaya United

2/3/2024

Thai League 2 · Round 22His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC67%

×Draw21%

Pattaya United12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon Ratchasima FCExpected goals in this matchPattaya United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.64

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.90

Pattaya United

0.64

Nakhon Ratchasima FC creates 197% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 43 away

2.12

creates per match

0.86

0.41

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

2.12

Pattaya United

0.86

allows per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

0.41

Pattaya United

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Pattaya United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Ratchasima FC ↓

Pattaya United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or draw

88%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Pattaya United

79%

Draw or Pattaya United

33%

Winning margin

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+

41%

Pattaya United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals

85%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals

56%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals

29%

Pattaya United 1+ goals

47%

Pattaya United 2+ goals

14%

Pattaya United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)

85%

Pattaya United (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

Pattaya United away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 2.12 + Pattaya United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.90

Pattaya United attack 0.86 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more

67%

level

21%

Pattaya United scores more

12%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff