Pattaya United vs Muangthong United — League #296 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
Pattaya United20%
Muangthong United57%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Muangthong United creates 83% more chances
Season form · 24 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Pattaya United ↓
Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Pattaya United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 24 matches
Muangthong United away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Pattaya United attack 1.08 + Muangthong United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04
Muangthong United attack 1.88 + Pattaya United defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.90
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Muangthong United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Muangthong United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Muangthong United substitutes
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Lamphun Warrior
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Uthai ThaniIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Pattaya United host Muangthong United on Wednesday, 17 February 2021 at 11:00. The match is part of the League #296 2026/2027 season.
Pattaya United 4 – 2 Muangthong United
Pattaya United beat Muangthong United 4-2 in League #296 on February 17, 2021.
Goals: S. Mirzayev (14'), Willian Popp (22'), Tardeli Reis (27', 31', 45'), J. Praisuwan (28').
The match was played at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium in Samut Prakan.