Muangthong United 0–0 Pattaya United

Muangthong United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pattaya United

9/20/2020

League #296 · Round 6SCG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Muangthong United55%

×Draw20%

Pattaya United25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Muangthong UnitedExpected goals in this matchPattaya United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.54

Muangthong United

2.32

Pattaya United

1.54

Muangthong United creates 51% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 26 away

2.33

creates per match

1.42

1.67

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Muangthong United

2.33

Pattaya United

1.42

allows per match

Muangthong United

1.67

Pattaya United

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muangthong United+0.00on par

Pattaya United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muangthong United ↓

Pattaya United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Muangthong United or draw

75%

Muangthong United or Pattaya United

80%

Draw or Pattaya United

45%

Winning margin

Muangthong United wins by 2+

34%

Pattaya United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Muangthong United 1+ goals

90%

Muangthong United 2+ goals

67%

Muangthong United 3+ goals

40%

Pattaya United 1+ goals

79%

Pattaya United 2+ goals

45%

Pattaya United 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Muangthong United (draw refunded)

68%

Pattaya United (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muangthong United at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Pattaya United away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muangthong United attack 2.33 + Pattaya United defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.32

Pattaya United attack 1.42 + Muangthong United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Muangthong United scores more

55%

level

20%

Pattaya United scores more

25%

Muangthong United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Muangthong United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

P. Autra

38'

D. Sato

47'

S. Jitvijan

56'

S. Panthong← P. U-Tra

66'

P. Chamratsamee

74'

S. Panthong

77'

S. Mirzayev← W. Pomphan

80'

N. Phonkam← S. Jitwichan

86'

P. Arjvirai← Willian Popp

90+1'

N. Phonkam

90'

A. Munotsa← C. Laptrakul

Muangthong

Pattaya

1

27

13

7

23

19

8

11

10

▼

Laptrakul

32

▼

37

1

66

5

3

34

15

37

▼

U-Tra

14

Thongkiri

18

▼

Pomphan

87

Derley

19

▼

Popp

Manager: Alexandre Gama

56'▲S. Panthong←▼P. U-Tra

77'▲S. Mirzayev←▼W. Pomphan

86'▲P. Arjvirai←▼Willian Popp

Muangthong United substitutes

7Panthong10Mirzayev20Arjvirai29Yos25Kanyaroj8Tasa30Sawatlakhorn16Intanee24Chaikultewin

Manager: M. Ishii

80'▲N. Phonkam←▼S. Jitwichan

90'▲A. Munotsa←▼C. Laptrakul

Pattaya United substitutes

6Phonkam77Munotsa49Wingwon15Sakai96Mahbud70Lertlam9Srinawong97Malaphan43Rodkeal

League #296: Muangthong United 0–0 Pattaya United

Muangthong United and Pattaya United drew 0-0 in League #296 on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at SCG Stadium in Nonthaburi.

Muangthong United vs Pattaya United — League #296 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #296: Muangthong United 0–0 Pattaya United