Patronato 0–2 Olimpia: Result & Stats

Patronato

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Olimpia

D. Torres 76'

I. Torres 9'

5/25/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Patronato44%

×Draw23%

Olimpia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PatronatoExpected goals in this matchOlimpia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.46

Patronato

1.73

Olimpia

1.46

Patronato creates 18% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 25 away

1.67

creates per match

1.24

1.67

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Patronato

1.67

Olimpia

1.24

allows per match

Patronato

1.67

Olimpia

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Patronato+0.00on par

Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patronato ↓

Olimpia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Patronato or draw

67%

Patronato or Olimpia

77%

Draw or Olimpia

56%

Winning margin

Patronato wins by 2+

23%

Olimpia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Patronato 1+ goals

82%

Patronato 2+ goals

52%

Patronato 3+ goals

25%

Olimpia 1+ goals

77%

Olimpia 2+ goals

43%

Olimpia 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Patronato (draw refunded)

57%

Olimpia (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patronato at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Olimpia away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patronato attack 1.67 + Olimpia defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Olimpia attack 1.24 + Patronato defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Patronato scores more

44%

level

23%

Olimpia scores more

33%

Patronato at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Patronato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

F. Zabala

Olimpia · D

7.6

Match Events

2'

Iván Torres

9'

I. Torres↳ V. Salazar

34'

Nicolás Domingo

37'

D. Torres← V. Salazar

45+4'

45+1'

45+3'

46'

58'

A. Ramos← M. Ruíz Díaz

58'

I. Russo← N. Solís

63'

J. Ghiraldello← S. Ojeda

67'

H. Quintana← I. Torres

73'

E. Díaz← J. Valdez

76'

D. Torres

86'

F. Bruera← H. Fernández

90+1'

Joel Ghirardello

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PatronatoOlimpia

Overview

62%Possession38%

18Total Shots15

11Corners2

6Fouls19

Shots

18Total Shots15

1On Target5

6Off Target6

11Blocked4

11Inside Box9

7Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

447Total Passes297

374Accurate Passes218

84%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls19

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Patronato vs Olimpia

Olimpia beat Patronato 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 25, 2023.

Goals: I. Torres (9'), D. Torres (76').

Patronato controlled possession (62%) and registered 18 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López in Ciudad de Santa Fe, Provincia de Santa Fe.

Patronato vs Olimpia — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Patronato vs Olimpia