Olimpia 1–0 Patronato: Result & Stats

Olimpia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Patronato

F. Cardozo 44'

4/19/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Olimpia63%

×Draw23%

Patronato15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlimpiaExpected goals in this matchPatronato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.71

Olimpia

1.77

Patronato

0.71

Olimpia creates 149% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 3 away

1.54

creates per match

0.33

1.08

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Olimpia

1.54

Patronato

0.33

allows per match

Olimpia

1.08

Patronato

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia+0.00on par

Patronato+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia ↓

Patronato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Olimpia or draw

85%

Olimpia or Patronato

77%

Draw or Patronato

37%

Winning margin

Olimpia wins by 2+

36%

Patronato wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Olimpia 1+ goals

83%

Olimpia 2+ goals

53%

Olimpia 3+ goals

26%

Patronato 1+ goals

51%

Patronato 2+ goals

16%

Patronato 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Olimpia (draw refunded)

81%

Patronato (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

Patronato away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia attack 1.54 + Patronato defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Patronato attack 0.33 + Olimpia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Olimpia scores more

63%

level

23%

Patronato scores more

15%

Olimpia at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

L. Zárate

Olimpia · D

7.7

Match Events

18'

37'

44'

46'

68'

D. Torres← H. Fernández

68'

L. Comas← A. Sosa

75'

F. Bruera← G. Paiva

77'

E. Díaz← M. Ruíz Díaz

77'

J. Valdez← J. Barinaga

77'

N. Solís← F. Cobos

78'

F. Zabala

85'

J. Esquivel← J. Ghiraldello

86'

V. Salazar

88'

S. Otálvaro← V. Salazar

88'

R. Martínez← F. Cardozo

90+2'

R. Ortiz

90+4'

N. Solis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OlimpiaPatronato

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots10

3Corners1

18Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots10

6On Target2

5Off Target5

1Blocked3

6Inside Box4

6Outside Box6

Passing

56%Possession44%

433Total Passes328

313Accurate Passes213

72%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0